This will serve as an update to what I wrote back in October:
The days of ISIS (in terms of holding territory and securing funds from those territories) are numbered – they are on the fast track to their final destination. Speaking of which, please vote in our poll (right column) to help mankind determine the location of such destination: Poll pending – will be up soon.
So having gotten that off my chest, here is what is happening right now
- The Russian campaign lost its glitter. But they are on the ground and have slightly strengthened Assad, which I was indicating would happen, and I believed was a necessary interim measure in order to checkmate ISIS.
- The Kurd’s have successfully advanced in Syria cutting off a major supply road.
- The Allies have been bombing locations to make it far harder for ISIS to raise revenues.
- Drones have taken out various top ISIS leaders.
- Russian futility creates an interesting dynamic for Putin: a) his strategy is not working, as predicted by Obama; but b) he cannot afford to lose face and c) Russia simply does not have the money (as discussed below) to achieve Putin’s original intentions.
- Russian airliner taken down by ISIS.
- Beirut bombing by ISIS.
- French bombings by ISIS.
So out of the above tragedies we have a tremendous opportunity. I can never remember, in the history of warfare, when 99.99% of the world’s population had the opportunity to come together on a single cause. Now we have such an opportunity to create something special. All we have to do is to allow critical thinking to run its course and to ignore Stupidparty talk and its divisiveness at a time when unity, to an extent never witnessed before, is now with in our grasp. The ISIS problem can be as unifying to mankind as the threat of a cataclysmic Earth bound asteroid. The US had an opportunity almost as great back in 2001, but the Bush team was more interested in behaving like war criminals than in actually conducting a war against terrorism. As a result, they created the mess we find ourselves in today.
It looks like the penny is dropping
“Antalya (Turkey) (AFP) – US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Sunday on the need for UN-sponsored peace talks and a ceasefire to resolve years of war in Syria, a White House official said. The two leaders spoke during a short and unannounced summit meeting over a coffee table on the margins of a G20 summit in the Turkish resort of Antalya. “President Obama and President Putin agreed on the need for a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition, which would be preceded by UN-mediated negotiations between the Syrian opposition and regime as well a ceasefire,” the official told reporters after the meeting.”
The pieces of the puzzle gradually fitting into place:
The one thing we must not do:
But while these mental midgets try and arouse the stupid with in us -the actual pieces of the real puzzle carry on falling into place:
This is what I wrote back on Oct 17th wherein I provided a road map—the moment that I felt that I had spotted a light at the end of the tunnel. Below I refer to the Iranians, Russians et al. taking Aleppo. This may no longer be a necessity assuming Obama and Putin can have a constructive dialogue.
ISIS You Lose. What should the Punishment be?
This will soon be hitting the news media. I have made it quite plain for the last months, more stridently in the last few weeks, that ISIS is doomed—that they will be meeting their maker a bit faster than even I have been predicting. My most recent absolute prediction and explanation was posted just the other day here. If you are an ISIS fighter in Syria, it is time to shave off your beard and play dumber. Tough I know, but no one will be shedding any tears.
Putin has clearly planned for this event meticulously and he has a morally free hand (by not being moral or answerable for his lack of morality) but he is also in financial handcuffs. So Putin will win initially, but he will lose the slightly longer game vis-a-vis his imperialistic ambitions. Obama has him cornered.
So this is the game: ISIS is hated by everyone, they have conquered mainly desert and some desperate communities, using resources and skills handed to them by the Bush regime, having not only disenfranchised the Iraqi Sunni Military leaders, but exposing them to the determinedly anti-Sunni Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. Since this Bush era miscalculation (leaving a side that the Iraq War was illegal, based upon deception), Obama was finally able to use the meltdown in Iraq to oust Maliki. If you want the best explanation of how we arrived at this point—well as it happens I have it—I would like to thank Khalid Nurredin, Las Vegas singer/songwriter and political blogger, for this brilliantly poignant, concise, and educational explanation:
OK, people, Here’s the big thing most people miss about ISIS; prior to the invasion, they were just a bunch of goat herders with AK47s, preaching the Wahabist gospel. Then Bush/Cheney had the bright idea of disbanding the Iraq army, firing all the Sunni officers, denying them their pensions, banning the Sunni Baath party from the elections, and telling them they couldn’t even vote. Then Bush/Cheney hand-picked idiot Maliki, who kicked all the Jews, Sunnis, Kurds, Agnostics, and Atheists out of the government, hiring only Shiites. Then he tells Obama that any remaining American troops will have to operate under Sharia, and Obama says no. Meanwhile, the Iran/Iraq/Syria oil pipeline is announced, with financial backing from Russia, China, and South Korea.
The Sunni monarchies hire ISIS, the Taliban, and Al-Qaeda to topple Assad, whom they consider the weakest link in the Shiite pipeline. The Qataris purchase Khadafy’s weaponry and ship it to ISIS. ISIS starts killing Christians, Jews, Sunnis, and religious minorities in Syria, Assad breaks out the WMDs, and the Taliban and Al-Qaeda quit the fight, saying ISIS is NUTS. ISIS flees to Iraq, where all those unemployed Sunni officers and government employees take the monarchies’ money and train ISIS into a real fighting force: 800 ISIS fighters defeat 5,000 Shiite Iraqi troops and take all the equipment we gave them when the Shiites run in terror . . . which brings us back to where we are today. You can’t blame this mess on anyone but Bush/Cheney.
The Battleground Today:
So, as we speak, Iranian and Hezbollah troops are on the ground and will soon take Aleppo. This, Syria’s largest city and its commercial center is presently held by the rebels. From Russia and Iran’s perspective you can not expect to get progress in the region until Assad’s regime has first been strengthened. The West should quietly accept that efforts to remove Assad have not only failed but helped create not only the quagmire, but also the refugee crisis. Assad however remains a war criminal and efforts to remove him will not have to cease, but should be postponed. For three reasons, the Russians can probably be persuaded to deal with Assad later. 1) the West accepting that Syria will remain a Russian ally and 2) with the application of future sanctions on Syria combined with 3) a lessening of sanctions on Russia, as Russia also starts backing down on Ukraine. The reasons for Russia’s acquiescence were discussed in my prior blog. Thus, the Russian bombings have not only cleared the path, by weakening the rebel positions—but will allow the Assad forces to advance in sync with the Iranians and with Hezbollah (who are based in Lebanon and allied with the Iranians.) Meanwhile about sixty other countries are assisting American, UN and now Russian coordinated efforts including virtually all the Arab Counties, whether they be Sunni or Shiite, including the Turks and the Kurds. When has there ever been such a overwhelming loathing for such a truly loathable group.
Personally I feel that fighters returning to their home countries should have their citizenship revoked and returned a new ISIS homeland—a few thousand acres in the middle of the Sahara, with water and basics and certain textbooks flown in, depending on exam results. This to last until they realize that prayer will not set them free—only critical thinking can. So until they can get a degree in one of the sciences they will be stuck at their desks basking in the desert. If this strategy works we can bring the same concept into the red states, the Stupidparty States, as a pre-condition to receiving further federal government subsidies to state governments that wantonly torpedo their economies to make childish and incorrect assertions. Government does not have to be bad – trickle down is far less effective than trickle up. Ignorance and bigotry harm the economy and blue states should stop subsidizing this madness.
But sadly, we have a chicken and egg situation, for unless Stupidparty disciples can be encouraged to realize that they are also devoid of critical thinking, it makes it that much harder to impose such remedies. Since we in the US accept mythical thinking, we can not really lecture others—therefore many of these fleeing ISIS fighters will find themselves thrust back into modern society, but remain un-remorseful, because modern society is far from rational itself—because evidently every one is allowed to have an opinion, even when such opinion can be proved wrong, can be shown to lead to massive unnecessary poverty, disease, misery and death. Stupidity, myopic myth based cultures begets terrorism.